Timing of peak incidence

DEFINITION

The week when the highest incidence of dengue occurs during the transmission season.

Forecast the week when weekly dengue incidence is highest, specifically the variable total_cases in the dataset. The week corresponds to the week of the transmission season (season_week in the dataset). This week corresponds to the number of weeks after the historically lowest incidence week of the year for each location.

MOTIVATION

A forecast of the week of peak incidence can help health officials target prevention messages and activities. It could also help hospital personnel make approriate decisions about resource allocation (e.g. staffing) to ensure optimal patient care.

Maximum weekly incidence

DEFINITION

The number of dengue cases reported during the week when incidence peaks.

Forecast the peak weekly incidence for the transmission season. This is the maximun value of total_cases for each season in the dataset.

MOTIVATION

A forecast of the peak incidence can help health officials anticipate the burden of disease. If transmission is intense, more resources may be allocated to help control the epidemic. It can also help hospital personnel prepare for surges in visits to ensure that all patients receive optimal care.

Total number of dengue cases in a transmission season

DEFINITION

The total number of dengue cases reported in the transmission season.

Forecast the total number of dengue cases reported in a transmission season. This is the sum of total_cases for each season in the dataset.

MOTIVATION

A forecast for the total number of cases in a transmission season can help with long-term resource allocation. If many cases are expected throughout the season, prevention and control resources may be allocated differently than if a large transient surge is expected.